Simulation of present and future land subsidence in the Rafsanjan plain, Iran, due to groundwater overexploitation using numerical modeling and InSAR data analysis

verfasst von: M. Bockstiegel, J. C. Richard-Cerda, E. Muñoz-Vega, M. H. Haghighi, M. Motagh, R. Lalehzari, S. Schulz
Abstract: In the Rafsanjan plain, Iran, the excessive use of groundwater for pistachio irrigation since the 1960s has led to a severe water level decline as well as land subsidence. In this study, the advantages of InSAR analyses and groundwater flow modeling are combined to improve the understanding of the subsurface processes causing groundwater-related land subsidence in several areas of the region. For this purpose, a calibration scheme for the numerical groundwater model was developed, which simultaneously accounts for hydraulic aquifer parameters and sediment mechanical properties of land subsidence and thus considers the impact of water release from aquifer compaction. Simulation results of past subsidence are calibrated with satellite-based InSAR data and further compared with leveling measurements. Modeling results show that land subsidence in this area occurs predominantly in areas with fine-grained sediments and is therefore only partly dependent on groundwater level decline. During the modeling period from 1960 to 2020, subsidence rates of up to 21 cm year⁻¹ are simulated. Due to the almost solely inelastic compaction of the aquifer, this has already led to an irreversible aquifer storage capacity loss of 8.8 km³. Simulation results of future development scenarios indicate that although further land subsidence cannot be avoided, subsidence rates and the associated aquifer storage capacity loss can be reduced by up to 50 and 36%, respectively, by 2050 through the implementation of improved irrigation management for the pistachio orchards.
Organisationseinheit(en): Institut für Photogrammetrie und Geoinformation
Externe Organisation(en): Technische Universität Darmstadt
Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum
University of Tehran
Typ: Artikel
Journal: Hydrogeology journal
Band: 32
Seiten: 289-305
Anzahl der Seiten: 17
ISSN: 1431-2174
Publikationsdatum: 02.2024
Publikationsstatus: Veröffentlicht
Peer-reviewed: Ja
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete: Gewässerkunde und -technologie, Erdkunde und Planetologie (sonstige)
Elektronische Version(en): https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-023-02657-y (Zugang: Offen)

BibTeX

@article{6ba59e88f8ed423d94bc3e7bd5bf062a,
title = "Simulation of present and future land subsidence in the Rafsanjan plain, Iran, due to groundwater overexploitation using numerical modeling and InSAR data analysis",
abstract = "In the Rafsanjan plain, Iran, the excessive use of groundwater for pistachio irrigation since the 1960s has led to a severe water level decline as well as land subsidence. In this study, the advantages of InSAR analyses and groundwater flow modeling are combined to improve the understanding of the subsurface processes causing groundwater-related land subsidence in several areas of the region. For this purpose, a calibration scheme for the numerical groundwater model was developed, which simultaneously accounts for hydraulic aquifer parameters and sediment mechanical properties of land subsidence and thus considers the impact of water release from aquifer compaction. Simulation results of past subsidence are calibrated with satellite-based InSAR data and further compared with leveling measurements. Modeling results show that land subsidence in this area occurs predominantly in areas with fine-grained sediments and is therefore only partly dependent on groundwater level decline. During the modeling period from 1960 to 2020, subsidence rates of up to 21 cm year−1 are simulated. Due to the almost solely inelastic compaction of the aquifer, this has already led to an irreversible aquifer storage capacity loss of 8.8 km3. Simulation results of future development scenarios indicate that although further land subsidence cannot be avoided, subsidence rates and the associated aquifer storage capacity loss can be reduced by up to 50 and 36%, respectively, by 2050 through the implementation of improved irrigation management for the pistachio orchards.",
keywords = "Arid regions, Groundwater hydraulics, Inverse modeling, Remote and satellite sensing, Subsidence",
author = "M. Bockstiegel and Richard-Cerda, {J. C.} and E. Mu{\~n}oz-Vega and Haghighi, {M. H.} and M. Motagh and R. Lalehzari and S. Schulz",
note = "Funding Information: We thank the European Space Agency for providing the Sentinel-1 data, and NASA/USGS for providing free access to Landsat imagery. Funding Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.",
year = "2024",
month = feb,
doi = "10.1007/s10040-023-02657-y",
language = "English",
volume = "32",
pages = "289--305",
journal = "Hydrogeology journal",
issn = "1431-2174",
publisher = "Springer Heidelberg",
number = "1",
}